航海装备Ⅱ行业航运船舶市场系列点评二：MEPC 82继续推进中期法规，支撑船队绿色更新

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (首次) [2] Core Viewpoints - The MEPC 82 meeting has not formally established mid-term regulatory measures for shipping decarbonization, but it signals a tightening of future environmental policies, enhancing industry expectations for stricter regulations [2] - The upcoming MEPC 83 meeting in April 2024 is anticipated to introduce important mid-term measures for greenhouse gas reduction, which will significantly impact shipping costs, organizational relationships, and business models in the coming decades [2] - The shipbuilding capacity for new fuel vessels is limited, and the green renewal cycle for ships is expected to be steady and long-term due to the tightening of green regulations [2] Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - MEPC 82 focused on ship emission control, ballast water management, black carbon reduction, greenhouse gas reduction, and marine plastic waste prevention, establishing a regulatory framework centered on GFI [1][2] - The meeting proposed that the CII regulations need to be tightened after 2026 to meet the IMO's goal of reducing shipping carbon intensity by at least 40% from 2008 levels by 2030 [1][2] Market Dynamics - The shipbuilding market has seen a long-term decline in capacity since 2008, leading to a mismatch between new orders and shrinking shipyard capacity, resulting in a tight supply situation [2] - The current order book for oil tankers and bulk carriers only meets basic fleet renewal needs, indicating a significant gap in meeting green renewal requirements [2][8] Future Outlook - The gradual tightening of green regulations is expected to accelerate the retirement of old ships and the renewal of green vessels, with a focus on leading Chinese shipbuilding companies [2] - The report suggests that the shipbuilding capacity is unlikely to see significant growth in the near future, maintaining a core driver of the current shipbuilding cycle [2][9]