凯因科技：金舒喜集采基本落地，利润充分释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 44.13 [7]. Core Views - The company's third-quarter performance shows a revenue of RMB 410 million, down 5% year-on-year but up 8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of RMB 70 million, up 27% year-on-year and up 224% quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.01 billion, up 1% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 110 million, up 20% year-on-year. The rapid profit growth is attributed to the launch of the innovative drug Kairuiwei and the implementation of the Jinshuxi centralized procurement [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 410 million in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%. The net profit for the same period was RMB 70 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 224%. For the first three quarters, the total revenue reached RMB 1.01 billion, a 1% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was RMB 110 million, up 20% year-on-year [1][2]. Product Performance - The Jinshuxi centralized procurement has been implemented with a moderate price reduction of only 21%. As of Q3 2024, over 90% of provinces have started executing the procurement, leading to steady sales growth driven by supplementary standards, centralized procurement volume, and natural growth. The company has also regained the agency for Anboshi, which is expected to return to normal sales after the transition period [2]. Future Prospects - The long-acting interferon has submitted a new indication application for adult chronic hepatitis B, which was accepted on September 30. Assuming a typical review period of about one year, it is expected to be approved within 2025 and start contributing to performance in 2026. The market potential for this product is significant, with expectations of reaching RMB 3 billion in sales [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 140 million, RMB 190 million, and RMB 260 million for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.80, RMB 1.11, and RMB 1.50. The valuation based on the SOTP method gives a total market value of RMB 7.54 billion, leading to a target price of RMB 44.13 [5][11].