梅花生物：Q3盈利承压，氨基酸景气改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 11.40 [7]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 revenue of RMB 6 billion, a decrease of 13% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 520 million, down 34% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The decline in net profit was attributed to falling prices of monosodium glutamate and increased exchange losses, leading to a rise in period expenses [1]. - Despite the current pressures, the improvement in the amino acid market and the company's proactive dividend and buyback strategies are expected to support a revaluation of its value [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of RMB 18.7 billion, down 9% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 2 billion, down 8% year-on-year [1]. - The Q3 revenue from feed amino acids increased by 14% year-on-year to RMB 8.3 billion, while the revenue from flavor enhancers decreased by 15% year-on-year to RMB 5.6 billion [2]. Market Trends - The prices of key amino acids such as lysine and threonine have shown an upward trend due to seasonal demand, while monosodium glutamate prices remain under pressure [3]. - The report indicates that the prices of monosodium glutamate and xanthan gum are expected to stabilize gradually as consumer demand recovers [3]. Growth Prospects - The company is focusing on its "Amino Acid +" strategy, with new production capacities for monosodium glutamate and lysine expected to contribute to future growth [4]. - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan of approximately RMB 500 million and a share buyback initiative, which are anticipated to enhance shareholder value [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is RMB 3 billion, RMB 3.4 billion, and RMB 3.6 billion respectively, with an estimated EPS of RMB 1.06, RMB 1.19, and RMB 1.26 [5]. - The report assigns a PE ratio of 9.6x for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 11.40, reflecting the company's competitive advantages in the amino acid sector [5].