Geron(SZ:002722) Southwest Securities·2024-10-23 08:00Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to perform within a range of -10% to 10% relative to the market index over the next six months [12][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.953 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 3.69%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 113 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.82% [1]. - The company is the only publicly listed entity in the textile equipment sector in China and is a leading provider of stainless steel decorative plate processing services. It has been recognized as a Fortune Global 500 company and is backed by a major state-owned enterprise [1]. - The textile industry is showing signs of recovery, with a reported 4.1% increase in revenue and a 14.7% increase in total profit for the textile sector from January to August 2024 compared to the previous year [1]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with overseas revenue reaching 103 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64% [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end manufacturing, with ongoing projects in special steel wire and equipment manufacturing expected to enhance its market position [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit growth of 20.92% in 2023, with further growth of 26.82% in the first three quarters of 2024 [1]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 2.72 billion yuan, 2.91 billion yuan, and 3.17 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -2.5%, +7.1%, and +8.8% [8]. Business Segments - The stainless steel decorative plate business is projected to grow by 1%, 8%, and 10% in the next three years, with corresponding gross margins of 8.6%, 8.8%, and 9.1% [6]. - The textile processing equipment segment is expected to see a decline of 2% in 2024, followed by growth of 7% and 8% in the subsequent years, with gross margins of 44.8%, 45%, and 45.5% [6]. Market Outlook - The domestic demand for stainless steel decorative materials is expected to remain strong, driven by policies encouraging appliance upgrades, while export growth is supported by a 24.9% increase in home appliance exports [1]. - The overall textile industry is anticipated to benefit from recovering market demand and supportive government policies, which will provide a positive environment for growth [1].