A股投资策略周报告：政策落地支撑市场中长期表现

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Chinese economy is showing steady growth, with GDP increasing by 4.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2023. Key economic indicators such as employment, inflation, and international balance of payments are stable, suggesting a robust economic performance [1][6]. - There has been a marginal improvement in economic indicators in September, with industrial output rising by 5.4% year-on-year, marking the first rebound in four months. Retail sales also increased by 3.2%, and fixed asset investment stabilized with a 3.4% year-on-year growth [1][6]. - The report highlights effective support for the real economy through social financing and loan growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in RMB loans and 6.8% in M2 money supply by the end of September [1][8]. Market Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven market opportunities, particularly in sectors like smart connected vehicles, which are expected to enter testing phases soon [2][12]. - It also notes the recovery in retail sales for automotive and furniture sectors, with a 0.4% growth in September, indicating a shift from negative to positive growth rates [2][12]. - Analysts recommend focusing on growth and consumer sectors, including TMT, automotive, machinery, building materials, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, electric equipment, and food and beverage [2][12]. Policy Impact - The report outlines several policy measures aimed at stabilizing economic operations, including large-scale equipment upgrades and adjustments to real estate policies. These measures have been effective in releasing domestic demand potential and improving market expectations [2][7]. - The implementation of a series of financial policies, including the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and the establishment of stock repurchase loans, is expected to enhance market liquidity and support the capital market [1][11]. - The report anticipates that these policies will continue to bolster market performance in the medium to long term, particularly as the economic fundamentals stabilize in the fourth quarter [1][11]. Market Data - The report provides insights into the performance of various indices, noting that major indices experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a range of 1.36% in the recent week [1][11]. - It also highlights the valuation metrics for major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index at a price-to-earnings ratio of 64.46%, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [2][16]. Industry and Theme Configuration - The report suggests monitoring sectors that are expected to benefit from policy guidance, such as the smart connected vehicle industry, which is poised for significant growth [2][12]. - It also points out the potential for growth in high-tech manufacturing, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% in high-tech manufacturing output, outpacing the average growth rate [6][7]. - The report identifies key themes for investment, including the Belt and Road Initiative, carbon neutrality, mergers and acquisitions, and state-owned enterprise reforms [2][12].