半导体存储板块24Q3行业跟踪

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor storage sector [16] Core Insights - The demand for storage products is primarily supported by AI servers, while consumer demand remains weak. The average price of DRAM is expected to increase by 8% to 13% in Q4 2024, although the growth rate is significantly lower than in previous quarters [4][6] - Flash products are anticipated to see a price decline of 3% to 8% in Q4 2024 due to weak demand in the second half of the year [7][8] - The report highlights a significant growth in the server market, with global server revenue reaching $45.422 billion in Q2 2024, a 35% year-on-year increase, and AI servers accounting for nearly 30% of all servers [10][11] Summary by Sections Storage Industry Tracking - DRAM prices are projected to rise by 8% to 13% in Q4 2024, with general DRAM prices expected to remain flat or increase by 0% to 5% [4][5] - Flash product prices are expected to decline by over 10% in Q4 2024, with NAND Flash products anticipated to see a price drop of 3% to 8% [7][8] End Demand Tracking - The global server market is experiencing rapid growth, with AI server demand significantly contributing to this trend. The average capacity of Server DRAM is expected to grow by 17.3% year-on-year [10][11] - Global smartphone sales increased by 2% year-on-year in Q3 2024, marking the first growth in this quarter since 2018 [14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a long-term focus on mainstream storage module companies that integrate storage with advanced packaging logic, as well as niche storage IC design companies that have significant pricing power and close ties with wafer manufacturers [15]