aisidi(002416) 广发证券·2024-10-23 08:13Investment Rating and Core Views - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Aishide (002416 SZ) with a target price of 10 76 RMB per share based on a 24-year PE multiple of 18x [2][4] - Aishide is a leading digital smart distribution and retail service provider in China, focusing on mobile smart terminals, 3C digital products, communication and value-added services, new energy vehicles, and fast-moving consumer goods [2] - The company benefits from the recovery in consumer electronics demand, the rise of high-end smartphones, and the potential of new product categories like foldable and AI-powered phones [2] Business Overview and Competitive Advantages - Aishide operates over 3,100 Apple-authorized stores and 186 self-operated APR stores, with a 25% YoY growth in self-operated APR stores and a 60% YoY increase in Coodoo online sales [2] - The company is the largest service provider for Apple in China and the largest shareholder among channel partners for Honor, with a 11% YoY growth in Honor's digital series product coverage [2] - Aishide has a stable and high-barrier-to-entry agent market, with a strong service capability that further consolidates its competitive advantage [2] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 96 214 million RMB in 2024E to 110 466 million RMB in 2026E, with a CAGR of 4 4% to 6 8% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 741 million RMB in 2024E to 923 million RMB in 2026E, with a CAGR of 11 4% to 13 1% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0 60 RMB in 2024E to 0 75 RMB in 2026E, with a PE ratio decreasing from 17 33x in 2024E to 13 90x in 2026E [3] Industry Trends and Market Dynamics - The global smartphone market is recovering, with shipments expected to grow by 5% in 2024 and a CAGR of 2% from 2024 to 2028 [34][35] - The Chinese smartphone market is also rebounding, with a 9 6% YoY growth in Q2 2024, driven by the recovery in consumer demand and the rise of high-end smartphones [35][36] - The market is shifting towards a "funnel structure," with increasing demand for both high-end (>600 USD) and low-end (<200 USD) smartphones, while the mid-range segment (200-600 USD) is shrinking [41][42] Strategic Initiatives and Future Growth Drivers - Aishide is expanding its comprehensive operation services and incubating its own brands in 3C digital and FMCG sectors, extending into high-growth industries like new energy batteries, tea beverages, and smart health [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high-end smartphone trend, with Apple and Huawei dominating the >600 USD market segment, accounting for over 80% of the market share [57] - The rise of foldable and AI-powered smartphones is expected to drive a new wave of device upgrades, with Apple leading the AI smartphone market with a 51% global market share in Q2 2024 [63][64]