BABA(HK:09988) Guohai Securities·2024-10-23 08:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Insights - The company is expected to see stable monetization rates and continued investment in core businesses, with a focus on international digital commerce and cloud services [1][3] - For FY2025Q2, the overall revenue is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to 2,396 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA expected to decline by 7% to 398 billion RMB [2][3] - The international digital commerce group is anticipated to achieve a revenue of 313 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28% [2][3] Financial Performance Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue for FY2025E at 1,010,044 million RMB, with a growth rate of 7% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 101,934 million RMB for FY2025E, representing a growth rate of 28% [4] - The adjusted EBITA margin for the Taobao group is projected to be 44% for FY2025Q2, with revenue expected to reach 1,013 billion RMB, a 4% increase year-on-year [2][4] Segment Performance - The Taobao group's revenue is expected to grow by 4% year-on-year to 1,013 billion RMB, driven by stable consumer recovery and improved monetization tools [2][3] - The cloud intelligent group is projected to achieve a revenue of 299 billion RMB for FY2025Q2, with an 8% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by AI product revenue [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a diluted EPS of 5.10 RMB for FY2025E, with a P/E ratio of 17x [4][6] - The target market capitalization for FY2025 is estimated at 20,708 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 108 RMB [3][4]