诺泰生物：公司点评：多肽发力持续，前三季度净利润同比增3倍

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 1.252 billion, 350 million, and 355 million RMB respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 76%, 282%, and 301% [2] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the substantial increase in orders for peptide products, with the gross profit margin reaching a historical high of 73.27% in Q3 2024 [3] - The company has secured FDA DMF approvals for several raw materials and has sufficient production capacity, with plans to expand peptide production significantly by the end of 2024 and into 2025 [3] - The company has established a long-term supply contract worth 102 million USD with a major European pharmaceutical company, which is expected to accelerate delivery in the latter half of the year [3] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The company achieved a 301% year-on-year increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first three quarters of 2024, following a doubling of revenue and a sevenfold increase in net profit in the first half of 2024 [3] - Q3 2024 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 36% and 146% year-on-year, respectively, while the gross profit margin reached 73.27% [3] Growth Potential - The company has a robust growth outlook with high technical barriers and significant order expansion potential, having already achieved batch production exceeding 10 kg for several long-chain modified peptide drugs [3] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity for oligonucleotides and has completed the construction of a new workshop [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 30%, 41%, and 44% to 1.7 billion, 2.4 billion, and 3 billion RMB, respectively, while net profit forecasts have been reduced by 5%, 37%, and 43% to 450 million, 580 million, and 760 million RMB [3]