煤炭行业：炼焦煤价格上涨明显，下游需求端月度产量继续下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [1][2]. Core Insights - Coking coal prices have significantly increased, with the comprehensive China coking coal price index reaching 1730.70 CNY/ton as of October 14, 2024, marking a month-on-month increase of 110.68 CNY/ton, or 6.83% [3][4]. - The inventory levels of coking coal at three major ports have continued to rise, totaling 4.0656 million tons as of October 18, 2024, which is an increase of 64,600 tons, or 1.61% month-on-month [7][8]. - The production of coke, pig iron, and crude steel has shown a downward trend, with coke production at 39.32 million tons in September, down 3.83% month-on-month; pig iron production at 66.76 million tons, down 2.02% month-on-month; and crude steel production at 77.07 million tons, down 1.09% month-on-month [2][15]. Summary by Sections Coking Coal Prices - The coking coal price index in China has risen significantly, with specific prices such as the main coking coal at Jing Tang Port reaching 1770 CNY/ton, up 110 CNY/ton or 6.63% month-on-month as of October 18, 2024 [3][4]. - Prices for coking coal in Taiyuan and Guizhou have also increased, with Taiyuan's 2nd grade coking coal at 900 CNY/ton (up 5.88%) and Guizhou's main coking coal at 1900 CNY/ton (up 8.57%) [3][4]. Inventory Levels - The total coking coal inventory at three ports has increased, with 4.0656 million tons reported, reflecting a month-on-month rise of 1.61% [7][8]. - The inventory levels at 247 steel mills reached 7.3566 million tons, up 1.77% month-on-month, while independent coking plants reported a total inventory of 7.9739 million tons, up 12.59% month-on-month [7][8]. Production Trends - Monthly production figures for coke, pig iron, and crude steel have all decreased, indicating a decline in downstream demand [2][15]. - Specifically, coke production fell to 39.32 million tons, pig iron to 66.76 million tons, and crude steel to 77.07 million tons in September, with respective month-on-month declines of 3.83%, 2.02%, and 1.09% [2][15].