有色行业周报：美国9月CPI超预期，金价高位震荡

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the precious metals sector [4][11]. Core Insights - The U.S. September CPI exceeded expectations, leading to a slight decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts in November and December. However, gold prices remain volatile at high levels, with a positive long-term outlook as the rate cut cycle progresses [4][11]. - Industrial metals require attention to policy-driven demand and economic performance. The report highlights a mixed performance in copper and aluminum production rates, with a recommendation to focus on investment opportunities due to rising prices and seasonal demand [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties that bolster gold's status as a safe-haven asset, predicting sustained high gold prices amid the Fed's rate cut cycle [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that the U.S. September CPI rose by 2.4%, slightly above the expected 2.3%, affecting market expectations for Fed rate cuts [4][11]. - The anticipated probability for a 25 basis point cut in November decreased from 97.44% to 89.45%, while the December cut probability increased from 80.19% to 84.36% [4][11]. - The report suggests continuous monitoring of U.S. inflation data and monetary policy direction [4][11]. 2. Weekly Sector Performance Review - The non-ferrous metals index experienced a decline of 6.24% for the week ending October 11, 2024, ranking 21st among 31 sectors [14]. - Sub-sector performance included declines in aluminum (-5.01%), lead and zinc (-5.36%), and copper (-6.04%) [14][16]. 3. Price and Inventory Performance 3.1 Precious Metals - As of October 11, 2024, COMEX gold closed at $2674.2 per ounce, up 0.04% week-on-week, while silver closed at $31.735 per ounce, down 2.19% [20][23]. - The gold-silver ratio increased to 84.27, reflecting a 2.28% rise [20][23]. - The report notes a decrease in non-commercial net long positions in gold by 7.25% [20][23]. 3.2 Industrial Metals - LME copper and aluminum prices fell by 1.59% and 1.01%, respectively, while SHFE copper and aluminum prices decreased by 2.04% and increased by 1.78% [23][25]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring traditional demand peaks and inventory changes during the "golden September and silver October" period [23][24]. 4. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [12][13]. - In the industrial metals sector, notable companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [12][13]. - For small metals and new materials, companies such as Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, and Yunnan Germanium are highlighted [12][13].