钢铁行业月报（2024.09）：钢材出口和消费双提升，新增专项债发行进度超9成

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Follow the Market" rating for the steel industry, indicating a neutral stance towards investment opportunities in the sector [3]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a dual increase in both steel exports and consumption, with the issuance of new special bonds exceeding 90% as of the end of September [2]. - The report highlights a recovery in domestic iron ore production, with September's output reaching 82.78 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.4% [2][15]. - Steel production is under pressure due to lower-than-expected downstream demand, leading to a reduction in crude steel output [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector has seen significant declines and many stocks are trading below book value, presenting potential investment opportunities [10]. - Five main investment lines are identified: 1. Companies with stable high dividends and low valuations, such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [10]. 2. Companies with high barriers to entry and overseas expansion plans, like CITIC Special Steel [10]. 3. Companies with stable performance and potential for recovery from low valuations, including Shougang and New China Casting [10]. 4. Companies benefiting from resource endowments, such as Hebei Steel Resources [10]. 5. Leaders in high-temperature alloys benefiting from domestic aircraft production, like Fushun Special Steel [10]. 2. Raw Materials 2.1 Iron Ore - Domestic iron ore production in September was 82.78 million tons, with a cumulative output of 781.38 million tons from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [2][15]. - Iron ore imports in September reached 104.13 million tons, with a cumulative total of 918.87 million tons for the first nine months, up 4.9% year-on-year [2][15]. 2.2 Coking Coal - The report notes that September's raw coal production was 414 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [2][23]. - Coking coal imports in September were 10.36 million tons, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, while cumulative imports for the first nine months increased by 22.3% [2][23]. 3. Steel Production - Crude steel production in September was 77.07 million tons, down 1.1% month-on-month and 6.1% year-on-year [2][10]. - Steel production in September reached 117.31 million tons, with a cumulative total of 1.04448 billion tons for the first nine months, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [2][10]. 4. Downstream Demand - The report indicates that both steel exports and consumption saw month-on-month growth in September, with steel exports reaching 10.15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.9% [2][10]. - The report emphasizes that the steel export market remains competitive, particularly in Southeast Asia, with significant demand for various steel products [2][10].