钢铁行业周报：政策预期加大价格波动，钢材社会库存积极去化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the steel industry [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that policy expectations are increasing price volatility, while social inventory of steel is actively being reduced [1]. - As of October 18, 2024, the total production of five major steel types reached 8.7342 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.11% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.11% [1][14]. - The report indicates that the demand side shows a total consumption of 9.1097 million tons of steel, with a week-on-week increase of 2.03% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.66% [19][20]. - The report suggests that the market's expectations for future incremental demand are weakening, leading to a recent decline in the price of ordinary steel [2]. Supply Summary - As of October 18, 2024, the average daily pig iron production of 247 steel enterprises was 2.3436 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.55% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.33% [14]. - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel enterprises was 87.99%, up 0.48 percentage points week-on-week but down 2.63 percentage points year-on-year [14]. - The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 51.88%, with a week-on-week increase of 3.82 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.24 percentage points [14]. Demand Summary - The report notes that the daily transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 133,100 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.36% and a year-on-year increase of 2.84% [19]. - The total monthly export volume of steel reached 10.1535 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 6.93% and a year-on-year increase of 25.96% [19][20]. Inventory Summary - As of October 18, 2024, the total social inventory of five major steel types was 8.7607 million tons, down 4.22% week-on-week and down 18.53% year-on-year [32]. - The total factory inventory of five major steel types was 3.9648 million tons, up 0.28% week-on-week but down 14.25% year-on-year [32]. Cost Summary - The report provides insights into the cost structure, indicating that the price of Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 692.2 yuan per wet ton, down 0.97% week-on-week [1]. - The comprehensive absolute price index for scrap steel was 2,605.68 yuan per ton, down 0.39% week-on-week and down 10.67% year-on-year [2]. Price Summary - As of October 18, 2024, the Mysteel ordinary steel absolute price index was 3,743.49 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week but up 9.87% month-on-month [2]. - The global steel price index was 205.4 points, down 1.34% week-on-week but up 3.95% month-on-month [2]. Key Companies and Profit Forecast - The report highlights key companies such as Baosteel (600019.SH), Nanjing Steel (600282.SH), and Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) with respective stock prices of 6.56 yuan, 4.60 yuan, and 4.32 yuan as of October 18, 2024 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for Baosteel is 0.52 yuan for 2024, while Nanjing Steel is projected at 0.39 yuan, and Hualing Steel at 0.48 yuan [3].