数据赋能快递研究（24年9月）：竞争强度趋缓

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a forecasted stock price increase relative to the Shanghai Composite Index of 15% or more within six months [50]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a recovery in Q3 2024, with GDP growth and disposable income growth improving compared to Q2, although still below Q1 levels [2][5][9]. - E-commerce user growth is slowing, with 2023 online shopping users reaching 91.496 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [25]. - The report highlights that the growth rate of express delivery outpaces that of e-commerce and social retail, driven by factors such as declining average package value and increased return rates [38][42]. - Investment opportunities in the express delivery sector are expected to arise from adjustments in demand and competition intensity, with leading companies like SF Express, JD Logistics, ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express identified as beneficiaries [44][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Environment - The overall economic growth center is currently lower than in 2019, with Q3 2024 GDP at 3.329 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.04% [5]. - Disposable income for Q3 2024 is reported at 11,539 yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [9]. 2. E-commerce Supply Side - The number of online shopping users is in a slow growth phase, with a compound growth rate of 4.2% over two years [25]. - Competition among e-commerce platforms is intensifying, as evidenced by increased sales expense ratios for major players like JD and Alibaba [27]. 3. Online Consumption - In the first nine months of 2024, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 1.2377 billion packages, growing by 24.5% year-on-year, significantly outpacing e-commerce growth [42]. - The report attributes the express delivery growth to factors such as a decrease in average package value and an increase in return rates [42]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery sector will see investment opportunities from demand adjustments and competition intensity [44]. - Long-term differentiation among companies is expected, with a trend of "the strong getting stronger" in the express delivery industry [46].