中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】先进产业冯胜：周期向上，景气可期——船舶行业研究框架（一）-20241023

Core Insights - The report indicates that the shipbuilding industry is entering an upward cycle driven by economic recovery and increasing shipping demand, with a positive outlook for the next 3-5 years [2][3]. Industry Overview - The shipbuilding and shipping industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream (raw materials, components, and design), midstream (shipbuilding), and downstream (shipping) [2]. - The global shipping trade volume reached 1.23 billion tons in 2023, with dry bulk, oil products, and containers accounting for approximately 45%, 30%, and 15% of global shipping capacity, respectively [2]. Economic Cycle Analysis - The shipbuilding cycle is closely linked to the economic cycle, with historical data showing that economic growth leads to increased shipping demand, which in turn boosts shipbuilding activity [2]. - The report highlights a classic industry cycle: economic growth → shipping market prosperity → shipbuilding market prosperity, which is particularly evident during economic upturns [2]. Demand Drivers - Aging vessels and new environmental regulations are driving the demand for ship replacements. The average age of ships reached 13.7 years in 2023, with 41.8% of vessels over 20 years old [2]. - New environmental policies require older ships to be retrofitted or replaced to meet energy efficiency standards, further stimulating demand for new vessels [2]. Supply Dynamics - The shipbuilding industry has seen significant capacity reduction since the 2008 financial crisis, leading to a higher concentration of active shipyards. The number of active shipyards globally decreased from 1,033 in 2008 to 376 in August 2024 [2]. - Current shipbuilding capacity utilization indicates a supply-demand imbalance, with new ship prices expected to remain high in the near term [2]. Short-term Market Influences - Recent geopolitical events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have temporarily disrupted shipping demand, leading to increased orders for container and LNG vessels [3]. - The report notes that the "Red Sea crisis" has also contributed to a surge in container ship orders due to increased shipping costs and rerouted shipping lanes [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the shipbuilding supply chain, including: - Upstream: Weichai Heavy Machinery and Neway Valve, benefiting from the shipbuilding upcycle [3]. - Midstream: China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, the largest shipbuilding enterprise in China [3]. - Downstream: COSCO Shipping and Haitong Development, both positioned to benefit from the growing shipping market [3].