宏观数据观察：三季度GDP增长有所放缓，但高于市场预期

Economic Growth - In Q3 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.5% but down from the previous value of 4.7%[1] - The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 0.9%, slightly below the expected 1% and up from the previous 0.7%[1] Industrial Production - In September, the industrial added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.5%, marking a rise of 0.9 percentage points[2] - The mining sector grew by 3.7%, manufacturing by 5.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 10.1%[2] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in September rose by 3.2% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5% and the previous 2.1%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points[2] - Categories such as household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a significant increase of 20.5% year-on-year, while automotive sales grew by 0.4%[2] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to September, fixed asset investment grew by 3.4%, slightly above the expected 3.3% and unchanged from the previous value[1] - Infrastructure investment in September increased by 2.2%, up from the previous 1.2%, marking a rise of 1 percentage point[3] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 9.4% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous value[3] - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 10.8%, although the decline narrowed by 1.8 percentage points from the previous value[3] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment in September rose by 9.7% year-on-year, up from the previous 8.0%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points[3] - High-tech industries continue to maintain a high growth rate, supported by government policies and market demand[3] Policy Impact - Recent policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market and increasing fiscal spending are expected to support economic recovery and stabilize the market[4] - The overall domestic demand is showing signs of recovery, with positive expectations for future growth driven by policy measures[4]