Tianfeng Securities·2024-10-23 13:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 791.5 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 110.9 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its personal market through a strategy of "connection + application + rights" and has achieved a mobile customer base of 1.004 billion, with 539 million 5G network customers by the end of September 2024 [2]. - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns, with a proposed dividend payout ratio of 71% for 2023 and plans to increase cash distributions to over 75% of the profit attributable to shareholders within three years starting from 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue to reach approximately 1,040.34 billion yuan, with a net profit of around 138.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.11% [6]. - The company's EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be approximately 403.23 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in the growth rate compared to previous years [6]. - The mobile ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) is reported at 49.5 yuan, showing a decline of 3.3% year-on-year, while the household customer comprehensive ARPU increased by 2.6% to 43.2 yuan [2][3]. Business Segment Insights - In the personal market, the company is enhancing customer operations and expanding into niche markets, with mobile internet traffic increasing by 2.1% year-on-year [2]. - The family market is being developed through a "full gigabit + cloud life" smart home ecosystem, with a total of 314 million wired broadband customers and a net increase of 15.36 million in the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - The enterprise market is focusing on integrated expansion of "network + cloud + DICT," with good growth in DICT business revenue [2]. Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to keep its capital expenditure below 20% of revenue, with a target of 173 billion yuan for the year [3]. - The company is committed to increasing cash dividends to enhance shareholder value, aiming for a payout ratio of over 75% of the profit attributable to shareholders by 2024 [3].