中国平安：Robust 3Q doubled in NBV and earnings growth

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Ping An, with a revised target price of HK$65.1, representing a 35.2$48.15 [2][5]. Core Insights - Ping An reported robust earnings growth in Q3, with Group net profit and Life & Health (L&H) New Business Value (NBV) more than doubling year-on-year. The Group's Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) attributable to shareholders grew 5.5% YoY to RMB 113.8 billion, indicating a steady recovery trajectory [1][10]. - The L&H NBV rose 34.1% YoY to RMB 35.2 billion in the first nine months of 2024, with Q3 showing a remarkable growth of 110.2% YoY to RMB 12.8 billion, driven by margin expansion and a stable agency force [1][11]. - The Property & Casualty (P&C) segment saw OPAT surge 455% YoY to RMB 4.0 billion in Q3, supported by improved underwriting and a better combined ratio [1][12]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - Group NPAT rose 36.1% YoY in the first nine months of 2024, with a significant surge of 1.51x YoY in Q3. The L&H segment's OPAT grew 3.0% YoY, while P&C's OPAT saw a dramatic increase [1][10][15]. - The report revises FY24-26 EPS forecasts upward by 14%/7%/3% to RMB 7.44/7.57/7.90, reflecting a clearer outlook for profitability [5][6]. New Business Value (NBV) - The L&H NBV margin increased to 25.4%, with expectations to rise to ~26% by the end of FY24. The agency force stabilized at 362,000 agents, contributing significantly to the NBV growth [1][11][7]. - Bancassurance NBV surged 68.5% YoY, driven by a favorable product mix and margin expansions [1]. Investment Performance - The comprehensive investment yield (CIY) reached 5%, up 1.2 percentage points YoY, indicating a positive investment experience variance that could enhance the Group's embedded value [6][14]. - The report anticipates better-than-expected earnings in the second half of 2024, supported by rebounding investment income and a low base from Q4 2023 [1][5]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.54x FY24 P/EV and 0.81x FY24 P/B, which is above the historical average for H-share listed Chinese insurers. The report suggests limited downside risk due to the turnaround in fundamentals [1][5][9]. - The sum-of-the-parts valuation assigns target multiples of 1.19x for L&H, 0.72x for P&C, and 0.90x for banking, leading to a target valuation of RMB 1,059 billion for the Group [8][9].