CHINA COAL ENERGY(601898) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-24 00:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's coal business shows internal and external extensibility, supported by high long-term contracts, which ensures steady profit growth. The synergy of coal and chemical integration helps improve valuation. The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 189.58 billion, 199.00 billion, and 214.11 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.43, 1.50, and 1.61 yuan per share, leading to PE ratios of 9, 9, and 8 times based on the closing price on October 23, 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 140.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.61 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year. The third quarter saw a slight year-on-year decline in net profit but a marginal quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 47.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.3%. The net profit for the same period was 4.83 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2% [1]. - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 23.5%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the expense ratio slightly decreased to 4.5% [1]. - Coal production in Q3 2024 reached 35.81 million tons, up 5.2% year-on-year and 6.0% quarter-on-quarter. The unit cost of self-produced coal was 274.4 yuan per ton, down 12.2% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The chemical segment's profitability declined in Q3 2024, with production of various chemicals showing mixed results in terms of volume and pricing [1]. Financial Forecasts - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 183.41 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 18.96 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 9 for 2024 and 2025, decreasing to 8 by 2026 [2][4].