石油化工行业周报：市场担忧需求前景，国际油价回落

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have recently declined, with Brent crude settling at approximately $73.06 per barrel, down 7.57% week-on-week, and WTI crude at about $69.22 per barrel, down 8.4% week-on-week [11][15] - Despite the decline, the EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will continue to grow over the next two years, reaching 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and nearly 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, which is expected to support high international oil prices [15] - The oil service sector has seen a week-on-week increase in active drilling rigs in North America, although the year-on-year comparison shows a significant decline [16] - The refining sector is experiencing improved margins, with Singapore diesel and gasoline price spreads increasing by approximately $2 and $5 per barrel, respectively, while the ethylene and naphtha spread increased by about $40 per ton [18] - Polyester terminal prices indicate a recovery potential, with the POY price spread expanding to approximately 1437 RMB per ton, suggesting a favorable outlook for long filament enterprises [22] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector declined by approximately 1.61% during the week of October 14-18, 2024, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by about 1.36%, indicating a lag of 2.97 percentage points [2][9] - Leading stocks included Baoli International and Guangju Energy, while stocks like Intercontinental Oil and He Shun Petroleum saw significant declines [2][10] Upstream Sector - International oil prices have decreased, but the EIA's short-term outlook suggests that prices will remain relatively high, benefiting upstream oil and gas companies [3][15] - The number of global drilling rigs increased in Q3, which is favorable for oil service companies [16] Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with Shandong gasoline and diesel prices dropping by approximately 315 RMB and 10 RMB per ton, respectively [18] - The refining companies are expected to see significant performance recovery due to improved price spreads [18] Polyester Terminal Sector - The polyester market shows signs of recovery, with increased price spreads and inventory levels indicating potential for long filament companies [22][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main investment themes: 1. Focus on energy central enterprises like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil for their efforts in oil and gas exploration and green transformation [4][31] 2. Attention to oil service companies such as CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to rising global upstream capital expenditures [4][31] 3. Investment in long filament companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. as industry supply-demand dynamics improve [4][31] 4. Monitoring refining companies like Satellite Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical for new capacity planning and material project layouts [4][31]