HIKVISION(SZ:002415) Great Wall Securities·2024-10-24 01:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [8]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent share buybacks and the increase in holdings by major shareholders reflect strong confidence in the company's long-term investment value [1][2]. - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 2-3 billion yuan from the controlling shareholder and 1-2 billion yuan from a related party, with a repurchase price not exceeding 40 yuan per share [2]. - The expected revenue growth for 2024-2026 is projected at 98 billion yuan, 107.9 billion yuan, and 119.3 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates of 14.5 billion yuan, 16.8 billion yuan, and 19.7 billion yuan [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 83.166 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1%. For 2023, revenue is expected to reach 89.34 billion yuan, growing by 7.4% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 12.838 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 23.6%. The forecast for 2023 is a net profit of 14.108 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery with a growth rate of 9.9% [1]. - The report indicates a stable gross margin, with projections showing a slight increase from 44.4% in 2023 to 45.9% in 2026 [4]. Future Projections - The report anticipates that the company's performance in the PBG business will rebound due to government fiscal improvements, supporting overall revenue growth [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.55 yuan, 1.80 yuan, and 2.11 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 18.4 in 2024 to 13.5 by 2026, indicating a potentially more attractive valuation over time [1][2].