生猪养殖行业研究框架专题报告：周期演绎：高质量与长盈利

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the pig farming industry, recommending active attention to companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Lihua Agricultural Products [2]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is characterized by cyclical price fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with the current cycle showing a prolonged recovery in profitability due to slow capacity restoration [2][32]. - The report highlights that the number of breeding sows is a critical leading indicator for pig prices, with current breeding sow capacity at 40.62 million heads, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% [2][18]. - The industry has transitioned from a phase of rapid expansion post-African swine fever to a focus on quality improvement, with profitability levels returning to normal [2][22]. Summary by Sections Pig Industry Chain and Key Indicators - The pig farming industry chain includes upstream suppliers of raw materials, midstream farming entities, and downstream processing and sales companies [5][6]. - Key indicators affecting the industry include breeding sow inventory, slaughter volume, and consumer demand, with current trends indicating a decrease in slaughter volume compared to last year [2][24]. Historical Pig Cycle Review - Historical cycles typically last between 3 to 5 years, influenced by factors such as disease outbreaks, demand shifts, and policy changes [32]. - The current cycle has seen extended periods of loss and slow recovery in production capacity, impacting short-term price volatility [2][32]. Current Cycle New Trends - The report notes that the industry is entering a phase of profitability realization, with expectations of improved performance in the fourth quarter due to limited supply growth and seasonal demand recovery [2][25]. - The average asset-liability ratio for listed pig companies is currently at 65%, indicating a cautious approach to replenishing breeding stock [43]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control and management efficiency as core competitive advantages for pig farming companies, with some firms achieving significant reductions in breeding costs [2][18]. - The investment recommendation includes a focus on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in pig prices and profitability [2].