银行行业专题报告：测算|LPR与存款利率下调对银行的影响可控

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [1] Core Views - The recent interest rate cuts are aimed at stabilizing economic growth, with the LPR and deposit rates adjusted to support banks' net interest margins [2][5] - The overall economic growth pressure is significant, necessitating these measures to achieve the GDP growth target of 5% for the year [2][11] Summary by Sections Key Company Status - The report provides a detailed analysis of key banks, including Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China, with respective EPS and PE ratios forecasted for 2022A to 2026E [1] - The total number of listed companies in the sector is 42, with a total market capitalization of 126,423.43 billion [1] Interest Rate Adjustments - The LPR was cut by 25 basis points, marking the largest reduction since the reform in 2019, with the one-year LPR now at 3.1% and the five-year LPR at 3.6% [4][5] - Deposit rates were also reduced, with the largest cuts since 2022, affecting both current and fixed-term deposits [6][7] Impact on Banks - The report estimates that the recent interest rate cuts will positively impact the net interest margin for Q4 2024, with a projected increase of 3.14 basis points for 2024E and a decrease of 6.38 basis points for 2025E [11] - The expected impact on revenue and pre-tax profit for 2024E is an increase of approximately 1.8% and 4.19%, respectively, while for 2025E, a decrease of about 3.31% and 7.33% is anticipated [11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets within the banking sector, including Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank, as well as undervalued city and rural commercial banks like Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [2][11]