Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expectation that the overall performance of the industry will outperform the market in the next six months [41]. Core Insights - The demand in traditional and emerging markets is being disrupted, with extreme weather affecting key export regions in China. In September 2024, China's total export value of solar battery components was $2.02 billion, down 40.2% year-on-year and 17.3% month-on-month, with an estimated export volume of 22.78 GW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 10.7% [2][5]. - The inverter exports in September 2024 totaled $679 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.04% but a month-on-month decrease of 21.21%. The monthly export volume reached 4.2955 million units, up 10.82% year-on-year but down 18.76% month-on-month [2][21]. - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry may be approaching a bottom in profitability, with Q1-Q2 2024 potentially marking a recovery point. The resilience in global photovoltaic installations in 2023, despite high base numbers, indicates ongoing demand [4]. Summary by Sections Export Analysis - In September 2024, China's solar battery component exports reached 22.78 GW, with the European market experiencing a decline due to interest rate cuts, intensified price wars, and unclear policy subsidies. Exports to Europe fell to 7.36 GW, down 2.02% year-on-year and 11.59% month-on-month [8][17]. - The Asian market showed resilience, with significant growth in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, while India and Pakistan faced temporary setbacks [2][17]. Provincial Export Performance - The report highlights that the decline in exports is primarily due to weakened terminal demand, with significant impacts from regional weather events. For instance, in September, Anhui's inverter exports dropped by 39.8% month-on-month, while Zhejiang's exports decreased by 29.7% [22][22]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the current competitive landscape in the photovoltaic industry is leading to the exit of older capacities and delays in new projects. This non-rational competition is accelerating capacity clearance, with inverters expected to recover first due to higher competitive barriers [4]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Canadian Solar, JA Solar, and Sungrow Power, which are expected to benefit from the evolving supply-demand dynamics in the photovoltaic sector [4].
【长城电新】光伏电池组件逆变器出口月报（24年9月）
Great Wall Securities·2024-10-24 02:09