卫星化学：业绩亮眼，轻烃裂解龙头产能正在释放

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 32.275 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.71%, and a net profit of 3.693 billion yuan, up 7.64% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 12.875 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.51% [4]. - The company benefits from declining raw material prices and the release of new production capacity, positioning it well for future growth as downstream demand recovers [4][5]. - The company is a leader in the light hydrocarbon cracking sector, with significant potential for growth as it expands its product offerings in the C2 and C3 industrial chains [6][7]. Company Overview - The company operates in the chemical industry, focusing on functional chemicals (47.7%), high polymer new materials (28.3%), and other businesses including new energy materials (22.2%) [2]. - As of October 23, 2024, the company's A-share price was 18.74 yuan, with a target price set at 23 yuan [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 23.62% in Q3 2024, an increase of 3.36 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower ethane prices and the resumption of production after maintenance [5]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.2 billion yuan, 6.5 billion yuan, and 8 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 24%, and 23% [7][8]. Production Capacity and Projects - The company has a robust production capacity in the C2 and C3 industrial chains, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its product offerings and operational efficiency [6][7]. - The company is currently in a phase of rapid capacity release, with multiple projects under construction, including a high polymer emulsion project and a propylene acid project [6][7]. Market Position - The company has established a strong supply chain with its own dock and fleet for raw material transportation, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in downstream demand for products such as polyethylene, epoxy ethane, and styrene [4][6].