快递9月数据点评：业务量增速环比略降，上市公司单票收入筑底回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the express delivery industry experienced a slight decrease in business volume growth in September, with a year-on-year increase of 18.8% and a month-on-month decrease from 19.4% in August [2][4][5] - The report highlights that the price competition in the industry is gradually stabilizing, with the average single ticket revenue showing signs of recovery after hitting a bottom [4][11][14] - The report suggests that the price war is expected to ease, particularly as the industry enters the peak season in the fourth quarter, influenced by capacity constraints and policy restrictions [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery industry completed a total of 14.97 billion packages in September, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.8% [5][7] - The growth rate for same-city deliveries was 15.3%, while intercity deliveries grew by 18.8% [5][7] Business Volume Analysis - The report notes that the business volume growth rate is on a downward trend in the second half of the year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year's price war [4][8] - YTO Express led the growth among listed companies, with a market share increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4][8] Pricing and Revenue Trends - The average single ticket price in September remained stable compared to August, but the year-on-year decline expanded to 12.5% [11][12] - Listed companies such as Shentong, Yunda, and YTO reported year-on-year declines in single ticket revenue of 4.3%, 12.2%, and 6.8%, respectively, but showed slight month-on-month increases [11][12][14] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the industry CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) has increased by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting faster growth among leading companies [16][17] - The report emphasizes that the competitive landscape is shifting, with a growing focus on service quality as companies adapt to market demands [16][17] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the industry, particularly Zhongtong and YTO, as the price war is expected to ease and the market dynamics shift towards quality service [16][18]