银行视角看回购增持贷款：预计企业属性和股息率会成为重要抓手

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [1][14]. Core Insights - The banking sector is actively engaging in the "first order" sentiment, with the first batch of loans being issued quickly across various types of enterprises [2][4]. - In the long term, the attributes of enterprises and dividend yields are expected to become key factors for bank credit [2][11]. - The People's Bank of China has initiated a total quota of 300 billion yuan for the first phase of repurchase and increase loans, with a one-year interest rate of 1.75% [4][12]. Summary by Sections Key Company Status - Jiangsu Bank: Current price 8.94 yuan, EPS forecast for 2024E is 1.71, PE ratio is 5.23, rated as "Buy" [1]. - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank: Current price 5.99 yuan, EPS forecast for 2024E is 1.01, PE ratio is 5.93, rated as "Buy" [1]. - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank: Current price 7.99 yuan, EPS forecast for 2024E is 1.32, PE ratio is 6.05, rated as "Overweight" [1]. - China Merchants Bank: Current price 39.66 yuan, EPS forecast for 2024E is 5.75, PE ratio is 6.90, rated as "Overweight" [1]. - Agricultural Bank of China: Current price 4.85 yuan, EPS forecast for 2024E is 0.75, PE ratio is 6.47, rated as "Overweight" [1]. Market Trends - As of October 22, 2024, 29 companies have received repurchase and increase loans, with disclosed loan amounts nearing 12 billion yuan [2][7]. - The report highlights that 21 national financial institutions are authorized to issue these loans, with interest rates not exceeding 2.25% [4][12]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that enterprise attributes and dividend yields will be critical for bank lending decisions, with a preference for state-owned enterprises [2][11]. - It is noted that only 1,038 out of 3,944 listed companies have a dividend yield exceeding 2.25%, making them more likely to receive loans [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core banking assets such as Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank, as well as quality city commercial banks like Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [2][13].