钢铁行业月度数据点评：生铁产量下滑，钢材出口维持高增

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - From January to September 2024, the production of crude steel and pig iron has declined, but profit margins are improving, which may drive a recovery in supply [4] - Steel exports have shown significant growth, with a 21.2% increase year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, indicating strong demand from regions like Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America [6] - The recovery in steel mill profitability has been noted, with rates rising to 74.48% as of October 18, 2024, following a period of low profitability [5][6] Summary by Sections Production Data - In the first nine months of 2024, the production of coke was 36.44 million tons, down 1.2% year-on-year; crude steel production was 76.848 million tons, down 3.6%; and pig iron production was 64.443 million tons, down 4.6% [5] - September 2024 saw crude steel production at 7.707 million tons, a decrease of 6.1% year-on-year, while steel production for the same month was 11.731 million tons, down 2.4% year-on-year [5] Export Data - Steel exports reached 8.071 million tons from January to September 2024, with September exports alone at 1.0153 million tons, reflecting a 25.9% year-on-year increase [6] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment value is seen in steel companies benefiting from export demand, particularly those with advanced technology and diverse product structures [7] - Long-term investment value is expected in leading companies with scale advantages as the industry undergoes high-quality development and regional capacity consolidation [7]