9月煤炭供需数据点评：原煤产量正增长，火力发电加速

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The production of raw coal has accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% for the first nine months of 2024, marking the first positive growth this year. The production in September reached 41.446 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, the highest monthly growth rate of the year [3][4] - National electricity production has also seen a slight acceleration, with a total industrial power generation of 7,056 billion kWh from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4%. In September alone, the generation was 802.4 billion kWh, up 6.0% year-on-year [4][5] - The report suggests that while coal supply has increased, the production capacity growth in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited due to safety regulations prioritizing safety over production. However, fire power generation is anticipated to accelerate due to the decline in hydropower generation and the weaker peak capacity of solar and wind power in winter [5][6] Summary by Sections Raw Coal Production - The cumulative raw coal production from January to September 2024 was 347.577 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 0.6%. The production in September was 41.446 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 1,791 million tons, or 4.52% [3][4] - The significant recovery in September is attributed to improved safety measures in coal mining, with a notable reduction in safety incidents [3] Electricity Production - The total industrial electricity generation for the first nine months was 7,056 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The fire power generation for the same period was 4,743.9 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of 1.9% [4] - In September, fire power generation reached 545.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, indicating a significant acceleration compared to previous months [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong resource endowments in thermal coal, maintaining the "Overweight" rating for the industry [5][6]