证券Ⅱ行业专题研究：基于成交额与估值相关性分析-券商板块β属性消失了吗？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the securities industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The analysis indicates that the beta attribute of the brokerage sector has diminished, with the sector's performance increasingly influenced by alpha factors such as regulatory policies and business innovations, alongside traditional trading volume metrics [2][6]. - Historical performance shows that the brokerage sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index during six distinct market cycles since the IPO of CITIC Securities in 2003, with varying drivers of performance over time [2][6]. - Recent trends indicate a significant increase in trading activity, suggesting potential for valuation recovery within the brokerage sector [3][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Brokerage Stocks' Beta and Alpha Attributes - Before 2010, trading volume was the primary driver of brokerage stock performance, with significant outperformance linked to market cycles [6][10]. - Post-2010, the performance drivers diversified, incorporating regulatory changes and business innovations, leading to a blend of beta and alpha influences [6][10]. - The brokerage sector has shown independent performance patterns, particularly during periods of regulatory reform and market sentiment shifts [11][20]. 2. Current Market Activity and Valuation Recovery - The report highlights a substantial increase in trading volumes, with the brokerage index showing a strong correlation with market activity, particularly during rapid trading volume increases [21][22]. - Historical analysis indicates that even when trading volumes peak, the brokerage sector can still experience further price increases, contingent on maintaining high turnover rates and other indicators [22][23]. - The current PB (Price-to-Book) valuation of the brokerage sector remains at historical lows, suggesting potential for upward adjustment as market conditions improve [3][21].