2024年冬春航季国内航司换季概览：大小航司现分化，下沉市场迎机遇

Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on the development opportunities in the lower-tier markets, particularly highlighting Huaxia Airlines, with Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines also expected to benefit [2]. Core Insights - The overall flight schedule for domestic airlines in the 2024 winter-spring season remains stable compared to 2023, with a slight decrease of 0.01% but an increase of approximately 17.26% compared to the 2019 winter-spring season [3][4]. - Domestic airlines have seen a decline of 0.96% in domestic flight schedules compared to 2023, while international flight schedules have increased by 16.23% [3][4]. - The recovery of international and regional flight schedules varies significantly, with Africa and the Middle East leading, while North America has only recovered to 18% of 2019 levels [2][12]. Summary by Sections Flight Schedule Overview - The total planned passenger flight schedule for domestic airlines in the 2024 winter-spring season is stable compared to 2023, with a slight decrease of 0.01% and an increase of 17.26% compared to 2019 [3][4]. - Domestic airlines' international flight schedules have increased by 16.23% compared to 2023, while regional flight schedules have decreased by 12.10% [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates a differentiation between large and small airlines, with smaller airlines like Huaxia Airlines experiencing significant growth in lower-tier markets, while major airlines see a decline in domestic flight schedules [2][3]. - The planned flight schedules for major cities have decreased, with a notable drop in the number of flights on key routes such as Shenzhen to Shanghai and Shanghai to Guangzhou [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the lower-tier markets present new development opportunities, particularly for Huaxia Airlines, which is expected to benefit from changes in capacity allocation by major airlines [2][10]. - Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries due to their operational strategies focusing on lower-tier markets [2][10].