中煤能源：煤炭主业以量补价，Q3业绩符合预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 140.41 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 14.61 billion, down 12.43% year-on-year [4] - The coal business showed a recovery in production and sales in Q3 2024, with a total coal production of 35.81 million tons and sales of 71.69 million tons, representing year-on-year increases of 5.2% and 5.6%, respectively [4] - The company has a strong cash position with CNY 88.92 billion in cash and a debt-to-asset ratio of 47.08%, indicating potential for increased shareholder returns [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 47.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, and a net profit of CNY 4.83 billion, down 0.6% year-on-year [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit of CNY 14.61 billion, a decrease of 12.43% compared to the previous year [4] Coal Business - The total coal production and sales for the first three quarters of 2024 were 102.31 million tons and 205.51 million tons, respectively, with production up 1.1% and sales down 4.3% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was CNY 571 per ton, down 5.3% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was CNY 286.6, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [4] Chemical Business - The company reported stable sales in its chemical segment, with polyolefins sales of 1.135 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [5] - The average selling prices for polyolefins and urea were CNY 6,971 and CNY 2,134 per ton, respectively, with urea prices down 11.4% year-on-year [5] Future Growth Potential - The company is expected to see growth in coal production with new mines projected to be operational by 2025, and ongoing projects in coal chemical processing and power generation [6] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are CNY 1,917 billion, CNY 1,984 billion, and CNY 2,018 billion, with net profits expected to be CNY 192 billion, CNY 212 billion, and CNY 225 billion, respectively [6]