2024美国大选追踪系列七：美国大选为何会出现争议性结果？

Group 1: Election Trends - Since October 2024, Trump's winning probability has significantly improved, with leading margins in seven swing states: Georgia +1.8%, Arizona +1.6%, Michigan +1.2%, Nevada +0.8%, Pennsylvania +0.8%, North Carolina +0.5%, and Wisconsin +0.2%[2][11] - The average voter registration rate in the seven swing states is 70%, with approximately 7% of registered voters not expected to vote[4][19] Group 2: Election Risks - Potential risks exist due to severe political polarization, with the losing party likely to question the election results, similar to the controversies following the 2020 election[1][2] - Non-citizen voting is a criminal offense, but enforcement varies by state, leading to a lax regulatory environment[16][17] - The narrow margins in swing states mean that a difference of just a few thousand votes can change the election outcome, as seen in the 2020 election results[21][24] Group 3: Voter Registration and Verification - Voter registration processes are relatively lenient, requiring only basic information like an ID number for online applications, with some states allowing same-day registration[4][18] - Mail-in voting regulations are also relaxed, with only a few states requiring photo ID for mail-in ballots, while others do not require any verification[4][18]