地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告-安徽篇

Industry Overview - Anhui Province is a key part of the Yangtze River Delta economic zone, with significant advantages in transportation and natural resources, but its urbanization rate is relatively low [1] - The automotive industry is the leading sector in Anhui, driving economic growth, with industrial upgrading continuing to advance [1] - In 2023, Anhui's GDP and per capita GDP ranked among the top in China, with fixed asset investment being the main driver of economic growth [1] - The general public budget revenue of Anhui increased in 2023, ranking in the upper tier nationally, but the fiscal self-sufficiency rate is moderate [1] - Government debt levels in Anhui are moderate, ranking in the middle among Chinese provinces [1] Economic and Fiscal Strength - Anhui's economy is stable, with GDP reaching 47050.6 billion yuan in 2023, ranking 11th nationally, and a growth rate of 5.8%, higher than the national average [4] - Fixed asset investment, especially in manufacturing, has been the primary driver of economic growth, with manufacturing investment growing at double-digit rates for three consecutive years [5] - The industrial structure is clear, with the automotive sector leading, supported by emerging industries such as photovoltaics, integrated circuits, and equipment manufacturing [5] - In 2023, Anhui's general public budget revenue was 3939.20 billion yuan, ranking 10th nationally, with a tax revenue ratio of 65.82%, indicating strong stability [9] - Government debt levels in Anhui are moderate, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 33.40% and a debt-to-revenue ratio of 147.13%, ranking 13th and 15th nationally, respectively [11] Regional Economic and Fiscal Divergence - Economic development in Anhui varies significantly across cities, with Hefei leading in economic output, accounting for 26.94% of the province's GDP [15] - Hefei, Wuhu, and Ma'anshan have per capita GDP exceeding 110,000 yuan, while Fuyang, Suzhou, and Bozhou have per capita GDP below 50,000 yuan [16] - In 2023, most cities in Anhui saw growth in general public budget revenue, except for Huangshan, with Chizhou and Anqing experiencing growth rates exceeding 10% [19] - Government debt levels increased across all cities in 2023, with Ma'anshan, Fuyang, Bozhou, and Lu'an having relatively high debt ratios [21] Urban Investment Enterprises (UIEs) - Anhui's UIE sector is dominated by city-level and county-level enterprises, with most having a credit rating of AA, and higher-rated enterprises concentrated in Hefei [26] - In 2023, Anhui's UIEs issued 333 bonds totaling 2113.25 billion yuan, with Hefei, Fuyang, Bozhou, Xuancheng, and Chuzhou being the top issuers [27] - By the end of 2023, the total debt of Anhui's UIEs reached 22921.13 billion yuan, with Hefei accounting for 3933.62 billion yuan, followed by Chuzhou with 2060.44 billion yuan [28] - The debt burden of UIEs in Bozhou and Huaibei is relatively high, with debt-to-capital ratios exceeding 60%, while other cities range between 45% and 60% [28] - Xuancheng, Bozhou, Fuyang, and Wuhu face significant bond repayment pressures in 2025, with maturing bonds totaling 1354.53 billion yuan [28]