光伏电池组件逆变器出口月报（24年9月）

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Views - Traditional and emerging markets are facing disruptions, with extreme weather affecting major export regions in China [2] - In September 2024, China's solar module exports totaled $2.02 billion, down 40.2% YoY and 17.3% MoM, with export volume at 22.78GW, up 3.2% YoY but down 10.7% MoM [2] - European markets are sluggish due to factors like interest rate cuts, price wars, and unclear subsidy policies, with exports to the Netherlands dropping 30.62% MoM [2] - Asian markets show resilience, with high growth in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, while India and Pakistan face temporary setbacks [2] - Inverter exports in September 2024 reached $679 million, up 5.04% YoY but down 21.21% MoM, with export volume at 4.2955 million units, up 10.82% YoY but down 18.76% MoM [2] - Poland is the only major European country showing growth in inverter exports, while Africa sees a decline due to weak demand in South Africa, though new markets like Nigeria and Zambia show positive changes [2] - Regional weather impacts, such as typhoons in East China, significantly affected exports from provinces like Anhui, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu [2] Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the photovoltaic (PV) industry is nearing a bottom in terms of profitability, with potential recovery in Q1-Q2 2024 [4] - Global PV installations are expected to grow despite a high base in 2023, driven by domestic and international energy transition policies [4] - The industry's internal competition is accelerating capacity clearance, with inverters likely to recover first due to higher competitive barriers [4] - Companies like Aiko Solar, JA Solar, and Sungrow are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Export Analysis - In September 2024, China's solar module exports to Europe fell 11.59% MoM, while exports to other emerging markets in Asia and Africa dropped 10.22% MoM [8] - Specific countries like the Netherlands, Spain, and Germany saw significant declines in module exports, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia maintained high growth [17][18] - Inverter exports to Europe fell 23.31% MoM, with Poland being the only major market showing growth [30] - Asia's inverter exports declined 12.51% MoM, but Southeast Asia supported the region's overall demand [30] - Africa's inverter exports dropped 22.85% MoM, with South Africa leading the decline, though new markets like Nigeria and Zambia showed positive signs [30] Regional Export Performance - Anhui province saw a 39.8% MoM drop in inverter exports, with export value down 47.3% MoM [22] - Zhejiang province's inverter exports fell 29.7% MoM, with export value down 35% MoM [22] - Jiangsu province's inverter exports dropped 23.9% MoM, with export value down 31% MoM [22] - Guangdong province experienced a smaller decline in inverter exports, down 10% MoM in value and 11.5% MoM in volume [22]