集团（US）：3Q24前瞻：广告拐点出现仍需时间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group with a target price of $133.70 [6][11]. Core Insights - Baidu Group's revenue performance is expected to be under pressure in 3Q24 due to a mild macro environment and business restructuring, with core revenue projected to decline by 1.7% year-on-year to RMB 26.11 billion [1]. - The non-GAAP operating profit is estimated at RMB 6.40 billion, corresponding to a non-GAAP operating margin of 24.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the underperformance of the high-margin advertising business [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the potential impact of policy stimuli on macroeconomic and consumer demand recovery, which could influence advertisers' willingness to invest [1]. Revenue Forecasts - Baidu's core advertising revenue is expected to decline by 6.0% year-on-year to RMB 18.49 billion in 3Q24, attributed to weak demand from sectors such as real estate and transportation [2]. - Smart cloud revenue is projected to grow by 11.1% year-on-year to RMB 4.94 billion, driven by the gradual release of AI contributions [2]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to RMB 27.73 billion, RMB 29.17 billion, and RMB 31.53 billion, respectively [4]. - The target price adjustment is based on the SOTP model, reflecting an increase in the valuation of the company's equity investments [4][11]. Segment Valuation - The core advertising business is valued at $98.6 per ADS based on a 10.0x 2024 PE, which is below the industry average of 14.3x [11]. - The AI cloud segment is valued at $25.5 per ADS based on a 3.0x 2024 PS, also below the industry average of 7.7x [11]. - The valuation for iQIYI and other investments stands at $9.6 per ADS, applying a 30% discount [11].