POP MART(HK:09992)2024-10-24 10:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Pop Mart International (9992 HK) with a current price of HK$75.20 and a target price of HK$80.90 [2][9]. Core Insights - Pop Mart's third-quarter performance significantly exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of 120%-125% year-on-year, driven by a 55%-60% increase in mainland China and a remarkable 440%-445% growth in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets [8][12]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, bolstered by enhanced IP operations and new product launches, alongside strong overseas demand contributing to domestic sales [8][12]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at RMB 12.42 billion, RMB 16.21 billion, and RMB 19.97 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 2.85 billion, RMB 3.88 billion, and RMB 4.95 billion [9][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024E: Revenue of RMB 12,420 million (+97% YoY), Net profit of RMB 2,851 million (+139% YoY) [5][9]. - 2025E: Revenue of RMB 16,206 million (+30% YoY), Net profit of RMB 3,879 million (+36% YoY) [5][9]. - 2026E: Revenue of RMB 19,966 million (+23% YoY), Net profit of RMB 4,951 million (+28% YoY) [5][9]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 61.3% in 2023 to 67.1% by 2026, indicating strong operational efficiency [5][11]. Market Performance - The stock has shown impressive absolute returns of 51.3% over the past month, 87.1% over three months, and 238.0% over the past year, significantly outperforming the MSCI China index [3][6].