Xinyangfeng Agricultural(SZ:000902) Huaan Securities·2024-10-24 13:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly improved year-on-year, with orderly progress in mineral integration [1] - Revenue for Q3 2024 reached 3.948 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.92%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22.34% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 375 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.88% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.69% [1] - The gross profit margin stood at 16.19%, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.39 percentage points [1] - The prices of single fertilizers have stabilized, and the profits from compound fertilizers are expected to recover [1] - The company is actively enhancing its compound fertilizer supply chain, consolidating its advantages in mineral integration [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024-2026, the projected net profits attributable to the parent company are 1.429 billion yuan, 1.621 billion yuan, and 1.966 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.4%, 13.4%, and 21.3% respectively [1][3] - The expected P/E ratios for these years are 12, 11, and 9 times [1] - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 16.0%, 16.9%, and 18.5% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][6] - Operating cash flow is projected to be 1.872 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 3.596 billion yuan by 2026 [4] Market and Price Trends - The prices for sulfur-based and chlorine-based compound fertilizers in Q3 2024 were 2,872 yuan/ton and 2,447 yuan/ton, showing quarter-on-quarter increases of 1.41% and 0.50% respectively [1] - The prices of urea and potassium chloride were 2,086 yuan/ton and 2,496 yuan/ton, with quarter-on-quarter changes of -6.92% and +4.15% respectively [1] - The market price of monoammonium phosphate was 3,281 yuan/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.51% [1]