Post-election economic policies

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The upcoming US election is pivotal for economic policy, with contrasting views from candidates on tariffs, taxes, and regulation, which could have significant macroeconomic implications [2][5] - Despite differing proposed economic policies, the report suggests that asset impacts may be modest if major policy tail risks are avoided, with a friendly macro outlook being a more significant market driver [2][7] Summary by Sections Economic Policies Overview - The report highlights the stark differences in economic policy approaches between the candidates, particularly in trade and tax policy, with insights from economists on both sides [7][15] - Kevin Hassett emphasizes the need for expanding tariffs on China due to unfair trade practices, while Jared Bernstein advocates for targeted tariffs to protect consumers and domestic producers [11][17] Trade Policy - Hassett supports reciprocal tariffs to ensure fairness in trade relationships, while Bernstein warns against sweeping tariffs that could harm consumers and lead to retaliation [12][17] - The report discusses the potential global inflation and growth impacts of tariffs, particularly on China, and the implications for US monetary policy [7][17] Tax Policy - Hassett argues for extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and maintaining lower corporate tax rates, while Bernstein supports raising the corporate tax rate to 28% to ensure fiscal sustainability [13][18] - The report mentions the proposed global minimum tax of 15% as a means to combat tax avoidance by multinationals, which both economists view as essential [19] Broader Economic Outlook - The report notes a lowered probability of a US recession, with job growth and inflation trends being closely monitored [4] - It highlights the importance of addressing market failures in affordable housing and childcare as key issues for the next administration [16][21]