耐普矿机：盈利能力提升，出海有望加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 921 million RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120 million RMB, up 48.78% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 294 million RMB, which is a 17.8% increase year-on-year but a 22.19% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q3 was 36 million RMB, reflecting a 30.43% year-on-year growth but a 20.18% decline from the previous quarter [2][3]. - The decline in quarterly performance is attributed to the completion of current EPC project revenue recognition in the first half of 2024, with no new EPC revenue in Q3 2024. Additionally, a foreign exchange loss of approximately 9.47 million RMB impacted profits [3]. Revenue and Profitability Analysis - The core rubber wear parts business generated 510 million RMB in revenue during the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 34.88% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 2.43 percentage points to 43.98% [4]. - The company’s overseas revenue reached 630 million RMB, a significant increase of 99.55% year-on-year, with overseas gross margins at 39.98%, which is 8.27 percentage points higher than domestic margins. The establishment of a base in Zambia is expected to further accelerate international expansion [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 155 million RMB, 221 million RMB, and 296 million RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 29X, 20X, and 15X [5][7].