Changjiang Securities·2024-10-25 01:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Mobile [6][4] Core Views - The company's performance continues to show steady growth, with Q3 revenue primarily influenced by non-core business income. The communication service revenue growth aligns closely with industry data disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, with a slight recovery in growth compared to Q2 [3][4] - The estimated mobile ARPU decline has stabilized, while the comprehensive ARPU for home broadband has accelerated in growth. The company aims to maintain stable mobile ARPU and robust growth in home customer ARPU throughout the year [3][4] - The government and enterprise sectors, along with emerging markets, are identified as key growth drivers. The company is expanding its integrated "network + cloud + DICT" strategy and enhancing its capabilities in project delivery management [3][4] - Cash flow has significantly improved in Q3, with operating cash flow reaching 927 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.15%. The company expects further improvement in cash flow and accounts receivable by the end of the year [4][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 791.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110.9 billion yuan, up 5.1%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 244.7 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, with communication service revenue at 214.5 billion yuan, growing 1.0% year-on-year [3][4] Cash Flow and Accounts Receivable - The operating cash flow for Q3 was 927 billion yuan, showing a significant improvement compared to previous quarters. The accounts receivable increased to 90.2 billion yuan, but this aligns with historical trends, and a significant reduction is expected by the end of Q4 [4][3] Future Outlook - The company projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 138.7 billion yuan, 145.8 billion yuan, and 153.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.2%, 5.1%, and 5.0%. The report emphasizes a steady increase in revenue and profit, maintaining a focus on operational efficiency and cash flow management [4][3]