特斯拉：3Q24毛利率超市场预期

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Hold" rating for Tesla with a target price of $210.8, indicating a potential downside of 1$2.17 billion, up 17% year-over-year and 47% quarter-over-year, surpassing market consensus [1] - Tesla expects 20%-30% growth in vehicle sales for the next year [1] - FSD version 13 is expected to improve intervention intervals by 5-6 times [1] - Megapack production reached 200 units per week, equivalent to 40GWh annually, with a second Shanghai factory expected to add 20GWh/year capacity in Q1 2025 [1] - Optimus, the next-generation humanoid robot, will feature 22 degrees of freedom, doubling its previous capability [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Tesla's 3Q24 revenue was $25.18 billion, up 8$19.57 billion, up 2% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Energy revenue surged 52% year-over-year to $2.38 billion, though it declined 21$2.79 billion, up 7% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Vehicle deliveries in 3Q24 reached 462,890 units, up 6% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Average vehicle price decreased by 5% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter to $40,681 [11] Valuation - The target price of$210.8 is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, implying a P/E of 94.9x for 2024 and 66.6x for 2025 [1] - Tesla's market capitalization stands at $682.54 billion, with a 52-week price range of$139-$271 [2] Industry and Competitive Positioning - Tesla maintains its position as a global leader in smart electric vehicles, with new models expected to accelerate growth in 2026 [1] - The company continues to invest in AI and autonomous driving, which are expected to support its valuation [1]