食品饮料行业：调味品景气度逐步改善，估值存在修复空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [3][26]. Core Insights - The condiment sector is gradually recovering, with some companies showing signs of operational improvement after two years of decline. For instance, Haitian Flavoring & Food Co. is expected to see both revenue and profit growth in 2024, while Zhongju High-tech has shown profit recovery despite a decline in revenue [4]. - The national restaurant prosperity index rose to 119.7 in August 2024, up from 117.4 in July, indicating an overall expansion in the restaurant industry, which is expected to drive the recovery of the condiment sector [4]. - The report highlights that consumer willingness to dine out has decreased, but there is an increase in home cooking, which boosts the consumption of condiments in the consumer market. This shift is expected to support the promotion of high-end and healthy new products [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is currently valued at 48,650 billion, with a circulating market value of 47,178.7 billion. The average industry price-to-earnings ratio stands at 21.9, significantly lower than the 10-year average of 51.4, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [6][8]. Market Trends - The report notes that during the National Day holiday, restaurant consumption in Shanghai reached 8.192 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.8%. In Hebei, monitored retail and restaurant enterprises achieved approximately 3.18 billion in sales, up 12.8% year-on-year [4]. - The condiment sector is expected to benefit from a seasonal peak in the fourth quarter, with early stocking for the upcoming Spring Festival anticipated to lead to a more pronounced recovery [4]. Product Innovation - New product launches are expected to reshape the market landscape. Haitian has introduced over 200 health-oriented products, which have gained significant market recognition. The increase in consumer spending on home-cooked meals is likely to enhance the promotion of these new products [5]. Cost and Valuation - The report indicates that raw material costs, including soybeans and sugar, are on a downward trend, which is expected to continue. The overall demand for condiments is gradually recovering, and the industry is currently undervalued, presenting an opportunity for investment [5].