HLGF(SH:600346)2024-10-25 03:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [5][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 177.86 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.5% to 5.1 billion yuan [5][6] - The third quarter saw a revenue of 65.26 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.44%, but net profit dropped by 42.1% [5][6] - The report highlights the pressure from inventory devaluation in the refining sector and a decline in PX profitability due to weaker refined oil profits [5][6] - Despite expected downward pressure on oil prices, the report anticipates a recovery in refining margins in the fourth quarter [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of October 24, 2024: 14.41 yuan - Market capitalization: 101.43 billion yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.7 - Dividend yield: 3.82% [3][4] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the refining segment's price spread was calculated at 1,525 yuan/ton, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 369 yuan/ton [5][6] - The report projects a decline in earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 to 7.03 billion, 9.71 billion, and 11.79 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14X, 10X, and 9X [6][7] Industry Outlook - The polyester industry is experiencing a shift in profitability downstream, with expectations of improved margins as demand for long filaments increases in October [6] - Capital expenditures are nearing completion, with high dividend levels expected to be maintained as new projects come online [6]