再鼎医药：DLL3 ADC初期疗效安全性数据优秀

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $60 for the US stock and HK$47 for the Hong Kong stock [1][3]. Core Insights - The initial efficacy and safety data for ZL-1310 (DLL3 ADC) in the 2L+ ES-SCLC indication are excellent, significantly boosting investor confidence in the company's R&D pipeline [1]. - ZL-1310 demonstrated a 74% overall response rate (ORR) in the global Phase 1 trial, with a 100% ORR in patients with brain metastases [1]. - The company plans to accelerate the development of ZL-1310 for 2L+ ES-SCLC and aims to communicate with the FDA regarding the accelerated approval pathway [1]. Financial Performance - The projected revenue for 2023 is $267 million, with a year-on-year growth of 24$335 million in 2023, improving to a loss of $137 million by 2025 [2][9]. - The revenue is forecasted to grow significantly, reaching$995 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.3% from 2023 to 2026 [2][9]. Market Expectations - The current stock price is $28.9, with a potential upside of 107$60 [3][5]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of $13.4 to$31.2, indicating volatility and potential for growth [3][5]. Clinical Data Comparison - ZL-1310's ORR of 74% is higher than that of competitors like YL201 (68% ORR) and ZG006 (67% ORR), showcasing its competitive edge in the market [1][8]. - The safety profile of ZL-1310 is superior, with lower rates of ≥3 grade treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) compared to YL201 [1][8].