滔搏：管理层较为保守的指引利好股价稳定回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of HKD 3.07, representing a potential upside of 11.2% from the current price of HKD 2.76 [1][9]. Core Insights - Despite a year-on-year decline of 34.7% in net profit for 1HFY25, the company reported a 2.5% increase in operating cash flow, with a free cash flow to net profit ratio rising to 2.8x compared to 1.8x in 1HFY24, indicating strong operational capabilities and cash flow management [1]. - The management has provided a cautious full-year guidance for FY25, expecting a high single-digit decline in revenue and a net profit drop of 35%-45%, which is more severe than the decline observed in 1HFY25 [1][7]. - The company is facing significant short-term inventory and discount pressures, with management noting that retail discounts have deepened more than in the first half of the year due to ongoing challenges in foot traffic [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 27,073 million, which is expected to decline to RMB 26,653 million in FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [3][4]. - The net profit for FY2023 was RMB 1,837 million, projected to drop to RMB 1,380 million in FY2025, indicating a significant year-on-year decline of 38% [3][4]. - The operating profit margin is expected to decrease from 9.0% in FY2024 to 6.5% in FY2025, highlighting the pressure on profitability [4][6]. Operational Insights - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities, successfully managing to maintain stable expense ratios despite a significant drop in net profit, which has allowed for an increase in dividend payout ratios [1][7]. - Management emphasizes that the current guidance is based on conservative estimates, suggesting that actual performance may exceed these projections due to potential positive factors not included in the guidance [1][7]. Market Context - The report indicates that the overall industry demand remains uncertain, with increased competition in the high-end sportswear market posing additional challenges [1][7].