supor(SZ:002032) Guolian Securities·2024-10-25 06:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for Supor (002032) is maintained as "Buy" [4][6]. Core Views - Supor's third-quarter performance is stable, with expectations for domestic sales to benefit from policy support and improvement in growth rates. Long-term, the company is expected to maintain steady growth and operational quality, leveraging its strong comprehensive strength and collaboration with global leading parent companies. The projected earnings growth for 2024-2026 is +8%/+11%/+11%, corresponding to current valuations of 19X/17X/15X, considering its stable operational attributes and high dividend yield advantages [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Supor achieved revenue of 16.512 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.433 billion, up 5.19%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.405 billion, also up 5.26%. In the third quarter alone, revenue was 5.548 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.03%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 492 million, up 2.22% [6][7]. - The company adjusted its full-year foreign sales growth forecast from +5% to +17%, while domestic sales are expected to see slight declines in Q3, with improvements noted in demand for kitchen appliances since September [6][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The financial data for Supor shows a projected revenue growth rate of 7.50% for 2024, with revenues expected to reach 22.901 billion. The net profit is projected to grow by 7.78% to 2.349 billion in 2024. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.93 yuan per share, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.7 [7][13]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 53.69%, with a current market capitalization of approximately 43.76 billion [4][6]. Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The small home appliance industry is experiencing intensified competition, but Supor is actively controlling costs, which has helped maintain stable profitability despite pressure on gross margins. The gross margin in Q3 decreased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of foreign sales and intense domestic competition [6][7]. - The implementation of the "old-for-new" policy since September has led to improved retail sales growth for kitchen small appliances, indicating a potential recovery in domestic demand [6][7].