煤炭行业2025年投资策略：行业回归合理盈利，估值仍有提升空间

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting that the sector has returned to reasonable profitability and that there is still room for valuation improvement [1] Core Views - Coal prices have stabilized after a period of volatility, with the current price level considered reasonable based on the industry's return to 2017-2020 profitability levels [2] - The coal supply-demand balance has shifted from tight to balanced, with supply growth slightly outpacing demand growth in 2024, and a stable balance expected in 2025 [3] - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend, low-PB (price-to-book) stocks with growth potential, particularly those benefiting from policy support and future production increases [4] Price Analysis - Coal prices have shown a significant reduction in volatility since 2021, with a steady decline in prices through 2022 and a stabilization in 2024 [5] - The long-term contract mechanism has played a stabilizing role, with the spot price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port remaining relatively stable since June 2023 [5] - Overseas energy prices, including crude oil and natural gas, have also remained stable in 2024, contributing to the overall stability of coal prices [7] - The coal and thermal power industries have maintained profitability, with coal prices at a reasonable level as of Q2 2024 [9] Supply-Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal production in 2024 (Jan-Sep) reached 34.76 billion tons, a 0.98% YoY increase, while coal imports grew by 11.93% to 389 million tons, supplementing domestic supply [11] - The import structure has been reshaped, with Mongolia and Russia replacing Australia as major suppliers, and the import pattern is expected to remain stable in the near term [13] - Demand growth is driven by thermal power and chemical coal consumption, with thermal power generation increasing by 2.25% YoY and chemical coal consumption rising by 19.37% YoY in 2024 [15] - Steel and cement production, which are closely tied to the real estate sector, have continued to decline, with steel production down 4.55% and cement production down 11.27% YoY in 2024 [17] - Real estate-related indicators, such as new construction and construction area, have also shown significant declines, with new construction area down 22.28% and construction area down 12.23% YoY in 2024 [20] - Hydropower output has been strong, partially offsetting coal demand, while exports have had a minimal impact on coal demand [27] Supply-Demand Balance - The coal supply-demand balance has shifted from tight to balanced, with supply growth slightly outpacing demand growth in 2024, and a stable balance expected in 2025 [30] - The spatial mismatch in supply and demand is becoming more apparent, with the supply center shifting westward, particularly to Xinjiang, which saw an 18.03% YoY increase in coal production in 2024 [31] Outlook - Coal prices are expected to remain within a narrow range due to the long-term contract pricing mechanism, which limits the impact of spot price fluctuations on long-term contract prices [35] - The cost of transporting coal from Xinjiang to ports will provide some support to port coal prices, with the breakeven line for Xinjiang coal transport to ports estimated at around 855 yuan/ton [37] - The cost of importing coal from Indonesia, which accounts for 43% of China's coal imports, will also support port coal prices, as Indonesia's coal production costs have risen significantly [40] Investment Recommendations - High-dividend stocks, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, are recommended due to policy support and favorable loan conditions for stock buybacks [44] - Low-PB stocks with growth potential, such as Shanghai Energy and Guanghui Energy, are also recommended, particularly those with significant future production growth potential in Xinjiang [46]