Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso [2] Core Views - The report anticipates that overseas agency growth will exceed expectations in Q3 2024, while domestic performance may be slightly weaker than expected. The continued expansion of overseas stores is expected to contribute positively in Q4 [2] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the company for 2024-2026 have been lowered to 2.751 billion, 3.342 billion, and 4.023 billion HKD respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.869 billion, 3.448 billion, and 4.132 billion HKD [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 47.40 HKD from 49.60 HKD, based on a 20x PE for 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The report estimates an overall revenue growth of approximately 18.3% for Q3 2024, translating to an expected revenue of about 4.484 billion HKD. Domestic revenue growth is projected at around 7.0%, while overseas direct and agency market growth rates are expected to be 55% and 28% respectively [2] - The contribution of high-margin overseas direct business is expected to increase, leading to improvements in gross margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] Store Expansion - The company is expected to add over 100 new stores domestically and 150-200 stores overseas in Q3 2024, aligning with the annual store opening plan of 350-450 domestic stores and 550-650 overseas stores [2] - The launch of Harry Potter IP co-branded products is anticipated to drive sales in both domestic and overseas markets, enhancing the willingness of franchisees to open stores and agents to purchase products [2] Profitability Outlook - The report suggests that the overall gross margin is likely to improve due to the increasing proportion of high-margin products and the release of operational leverage as overseas direct business performance improves [2] - The expected sales and management expense ratio for Q3 2024 is projected at 26.10%, with an adjusted net profit margin of approximately 15.5%, leading to an adjusted net profit of about 694 million HKD [2]
名创优品：海外持续发力，静待旺季表现