ASML Holding(US:ASML) Tai Ping Yang·2024-10-25 09:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for ASML is "Buy," indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - ASML's Q3 2024 revenue reached €7.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, exceeding the previous guidance of €6.7-7.3 billion [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 50.8%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, aligning with the guidance of 50%-51% [1]. - The company has revised its revenue guidance for 2025 downwards due to export control factors, now expecting €30-35 billion instead of the previous €30-40 billion [1]. Summary by Sections Q3 Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was €7.5 billion, up 12% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, with EUV machines contributing €2.1 billion and non-EUV machines €3.8 billion [1]. - Revenue breakdown by region: Mainland China €2.8 billion (47% of total, +14% YoY, +19% QoQ), Taiwan €0.9 billion (15%, -30% YoY, +70% QoQ), USA €1.2 billion (21%, +369% YoY, +771% QoQ), South Korea €0.9 billion (15%, -16% YoY, -33% QoQ) [1]. - Revenue by application: Logic revenue €3.8 billion (64%, -6% YoY, +48% QoQ), Storage revenue €2.1 billion (36%, +67% YoY, -3% QoQ) [1]. Equipment Orders - Q3 equipment orders totaled €2.6 billion, flat year-on-year but down 54% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - EUV equipment orders were €1.4 billion (up 180% YoY, down 44% QoQ), while non-EUV equipment orders were €1.2 billion (down 43% YoY, down 61% QoQ) [1]. - The backlog of orders stands at €36 billion [1]. Future Guidance - For Q4, ASML expects revenue between €8.8-9.2 billion, with a midpoint indicating a 24% year-on-year increase and a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The full-year revenue forecast for 2024 is €28 billion, with a gross margin of 50.6% [1].